Drilling Down Home Page Turning Customer Data
into Profits with a Spreadsheet
The Guide to Maximizing Customer Marketing ROI

Site Map

Book Includes all tutorials and examples from this web site

Get the book!

Purchase Drilling Down Book

Customers Speak Up on Book & Site

About the Author

Workshops, Project Work: Retail Metrics & Reporting, High ROI
Customer Marketing

Marketing Productivity Blog

8 Customer
Promotion Tips


Customer Retention

Customer Loyalty

High ROI Customer Marketing: 3 Key Success Components

LifeTime Value and
True ROI of Ad Spend

Customer Profiling

Intro to Customer
Behavior Modeling

Customer Model:

Customer Model:

Customer Model:
Recent Repeaters

Customer Model:

Customer LifeCycles

LifeTime Value

Calculating ROI

Mapping Visitor

Measuring Retention
in Online Retailing

Measuring CRM ROI

CRM Analytics:
Micro vs. Macro

Pre-CRM Testing for
Marketing ROI

Behavior Profiling

Favorite Drilling
Down Web Sites

About the Author

Book Contents

 What is in the book?
 Productivity Blog
  Simple CRM
 Customer Retention
 Relationship Marketing
 Customer Loyalty
 Retail Optimization
  Visitor Conversion
  Visitor Quality
Guide to E-Metrics
  Customer Profiles
  Customer LifeCycles
  LifeTime Value
  Calculating ROI

  Recent Repeaters
  Retail Promotion
  Pre-CRM ROI Test
  Tracking CRM ROI
Tutorial: Latency
  Tutorial: Recency
  Scoring Software
  About Jim

Predictive Modeling of Customer Behavior - Drilling Down in Action

The likelihood of a customer to repeat an action (purchase, visit, game play) relative to other customers can be predicted using a customer LifeCycle metric known as Recency.  Recency is defined by the number of days or weeks since the customer has performed the action (purchase, visit, etc.) you are profiling.  The more Recently a customer has engaged in an action, the more likely they are to repeat the action, especially when encouraged to repeat by some kind of promotional effort.

Above is a graph of customer Recency (time elapsed since last activity) based on last visit (or page view) date.  The number of unique visitors is on the left (y-axis) scale; the number of days since last visit (or page view) on the bottom (x-axis) scale.  This site has about 5 million unique visitors a month.  "Yesterday" is at the far left of the chart – 1 day ago; the right of the chart is 90 days ago.

Customers are plotted by the number of days since their last visit (page view).  For example, all the customers who last visited
9 days ago are counted and the total is represented on the graphed line above the "9" at the bottom left of this graph.  Look at it for a minute.  What does this data speak to you?

If your answer is these guys have a great business, you’re right.  I mean, they have 5 million monthly uniques TOTAL, and most of them visited YESTERDAY.  Not only that, but virtually ALL of them have visited in the last 10 days!  This is a smokin’ business.  But you wouldn’t know that without looking at Recency, would you?  You have to know this stuff.  It means something very important, not only to marketing, but also to the value of your business in the future.

Now take a look at this second graph below.

Once again, a graph of customer Recency, based on last visit (page view) date.  Unique visitors are on the left (y-axis), and days since last visit (page view) on the bottom.  Yesterday (1 day ago) on the far left, 90 days ago on the far right.  This is a smaller site. They launched with about 60,000 uniques 90 days ago, but only about 3000 a day come back now.  What’s the future of this business?  What’s the data say to you about it?

It’s toast, man.  Absolutely moribund.  They’ll be lucky to keep the visitors they have.  They need to make major changes, and I hope they have the e-mail addresses of those people who never came back so they can promote their new offering.  If they don’t, there’s not much hope. 

These two businesses didn’t just magically get to where they are overnight; there was a process; customer behavior changed over time.  Wouldn’t it be great if there was a way you could track this process, a way to know the direction your business is headed?  There is, and you can learn about this method and many others  for tracking and managing customer value in the Drilling Down book.


    Home Page

Thanks for visiting the original Drilling Down web site!

The advice and discussion continue on the Marketing Productivity Blog
Twitter: @jimnovo

Read the first 9 chapters of the Drilling Down book: download PDF

Purchase Book



Slow connection?  Same content, less graphics, think Jakob Nielsen in Arial - Go to faster loading website

Contact me (Jim Novo) for questions or problems with anything on this web site.  

The Drilling Down Project.  All rights reserved, all media.



Ask Jim a Question


Get the book with customer scoring software at Booklocker.com

Find Out Specifically What is in the Book

Learn Customer Marketing Concepts and Metrics (site article list)


This is the original Drilling Down web site; the advice and discussion continue on the Marketing Productivity Blog and Twitter.

Download the first 9 chapters of the Drilling Down book here: PDF
Purchase Book           Consulting